Thus, there is no existence of trend in the monthly to be amount of rainfall during the two years period. Trend analysis of rainfall in nigeria by some states from. Temperatures in nigeria vary according to the seasons of the year as with other lands found in the tropics. The results suggest that excessive rainfall and extremely high temperature can reduce banana productivity while. Mean monthly rainfall data of 28 meteorological stations in nigeria for the period 19111980 are analysed to examine trends in precipitation patterns in the country. The variability of rainfall and the pattern of extreme high or low precipitation are very important for agriculture as well as the economy of the state. Variables analyzed included annual total rainfall and number of rain days, the dates of onset, termination and. Average total mayoctober rainfall in nigeria based on the 19812015 historical record mm source. Climate and average weather for abuja, nigeria displayed in graphs. Rainfall distribution and change detection across climatic zones in. Rainfall data from 28 stations for the period of 1970 2002 were collected from the nigeria meteorological station, lagos. Based on weather reports collected during 20052015. Nigeria, no doubt has one of the best climatic condition in the whole wide world.
This variability has assumed a more pronounced dimension as a result of climate change. Mathematical study of monthly and annual rainfall trends in. Nigeria s seasons are determined by rainfall with rainy season and dry season being the major seasons in nigeria. On the prediction of rainfall onset and retreat dates in nigeria. Development of rainfall intensity duration frequency. This study is all about rainfall intensity duration frequency idf modeling based on probability and nonprobability distribution function pdf, and npdf. Climate data and weather averages in port harcourt. Past weather in lagos, nigeria yesterday or further back. In the southeast of nigeria, the cross river national park is a hilly area, wet and covered with forests. Bankole abstract time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in many applications in water resources engineering and environmental management fields. Near the coast temperatures rarely exceed 32 degrees celsius 90 degrees fahrenheit, but humidity is very high and nights are very hot. An empirical prediction of seasonal rainfall in nigeria. The length of the growing season was determined using the cumulative percentage mean rainfall and daily rainfall.
Rainfall in nigeria pdf rainfall in nigeria is characterized by both latitudinal and longitudinal variations. Ipcc 2007 proposed a statistical approach to climate and climate change studies and this forms the focal point of this study as an attempt was made to study rainfall distribution over nigeria. This study investigates rainfall and temperature variabilities in nigeria using observations of air temperature oc and rainfall mm from 25 synoptic stations from 19712000 30years. The aim of this work is to examine the trend of rainfall in abeokuta, ogun state, nigeria. Rainfall is one of the major climatic resources of. Climate risks nigeria is prone to a variety of climate induced hazards, including floods, storms, ocean surges, droughts, and wildfires. Review of climate change and its effect on nigeria ecosystem olaniyi o. Pdf analysis of rainfall and temperature variability over. Analysis of rainfall and temperature variability over nigeria.
Modelling and forecasting seasonal behavior of rainfall in. Monthly rainfall amount data of fourteen synoptic stations in some parts of northern nigeria used in this study for the period of fortytwo years. An empirical prediction of seasonal rainfall in nigeria kamlaraj. Climate and average monthly weather in lagos, nigeria. Rainfall data collected by the nigerian meteorological agency, oshodi over a thirty year period and from twenty three weather measuring stations. Statistical modeling of monthly rainfall in selected stations. Rainfall distribution, variability and probability in plateau. The probability density function pdf describes the relative likelihood for any. The data for this study were collected from the nigerian metrological agency nimet, on rainfall according to geopolitical zones for a period of eleven year starting from 2002 to 2012.
Time series analysis model for annual rainfall data in lower kaduna catchment kaduna, nigeria. Various manifestations of its impact are evident in nigeria, which include increase in drought, scarcity of food instigated somewhat by irregularities in rainfall and over flooding. The result showed a continuous increase in the pattern of rainfall for a period of five years within the period under study. The moderately wet years were ten period moving averages, the rainfall regime 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2006, all the slight wet in the area is highly variable in the area fig. It is hot and wet most of the year in the southeast but dry in the southwest and farther inland. Sensitivity of vegetation to annual rainfall variations over. The annual rainfall total decreases from over 3,800 mm at forcados on the coast to under. It is important to state that rainfall of nigeria and west africa in generally is. Rainfall trends in nigeria, 19012000 sciencedirect. The results show that the greatest amounts of rainfall are obtained in the southern and western parts of the state and on the southern and western margins of the high plateau in particular. Nimet is the agency responsible for the measurement, control and storage of rainfall data of the areas in nigeria.
Rainfall and temperature data were collected from ikeja, benin, ibadan, ilorin, kaduna and kano, in nigeria. Climate indices, rainfall onset and retreat, and malaria. The paper is designed to study the rainfall patterns and its implications in nigeria. Dec 09, 2011 highlights we examined the existence of trend and periodicity in rainfall of nigeria over the last century. Rainfall and the length of the growing season in nigeria. This paper discusses the challenges of agricultural adaptation to climate change in nigeria under the categories adapted from fao, 2001 hunger and poverty. This study examines the length of the growing season in nigeria using the daily rainfall data of ikeja, ondo, ilorin.
Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to the fight against hunger, malnutrition, disease and poverty in africa, mainly through its impact on agricultural productivity. An analysis of rainfall patterns in nigeria global. Rainfall distribution, variability and probability in. The basic objective of this investigation is the determination of the spatial distribution of rainfall in plateau state.
This paper examined rainfall seasonality in the niger delta, nigeria, using both monthly and annual rainfall data from 1931 to 1997. However, a comprehensive research hypothesis was formulated for the study. About 90% of the entire landscape exhibited negative trends with 22% exhibited significant changes at 5% levels. Rainfall dynamics and climate change in kano, nigeria article pdf available in journal of scientific research and reports 75. O3 1,3 joseph ayo babalola university, ikeji, arakeji, osun state 2 adeyemi college of education ondo abstract. Forecast for jjas rainfall in 2006 over the region showed that olr was a good predictor for all regions in nigeria especially the swr, ser, nr2 and nr3 acknowledgement my appreciation goes to the staff the library section of the nigerian metrological. Nigeria s location in the tropics has given her a tropical hot climate. Climate prediction centers africa hazards outlook april. Rainfall, climate variability, seasonality index, trend, water resources. Nintyyear monthly rainfall values for all the available meteorological stations in each climatic zone of nigeria were collected from the archive of. Peter eje adakayi hereby declare that this work on assessment of rainfall and temperature in parts of northern nigeria was carried out by me under the.
Climate indices, rainfall onset and retreat, and malaria in nigeria a. Statistical methods were utilized to justify any change in the average monthly and annual rainfall trend using probability density function and nonparametric tests such as the pettitt test, wilcoxon signedrank test and paired sample test. This study examines effect of rainfall variability on crops production for the periods of 1990 and 2009 in oyo state, nigeria. Nigeria has a tropical climate with variable rainy and dry seasons, depending on location. Secondary data was used for this study, the data on seasonal output of maize, yam, cassava and cowpea and also total annual rainfall for the periods under consideration were collected. A set of sixteen year rainfall amounts and durations for port harcourt metropolis was adopted for the modeling. Pdf analysis of rainfall trends and patterns in abuja, nigeria. Climate and average weather for lagos, nigeria displayed in graphs. Rainfall in lagos, nigeria average precipitation and wet days. Probability and nonprobability rainfall intensityduration. The rain continues in most part of the country till even october and november although nigeria climate. Effects of global climate change on nigerian agriculture.
Hierarchical analysis of rainfall variability across nigeria. This climate is influenced by the monsoons originating from the south atlantic ocean, which is brought into the country by the maritime tropical mt airmass, a warm moist sea to land seasonal wind. Pdf rainfall dynamics and climate change in kano, nigeria. Continuous heavy rainfall since july reached its peak in late september, causing severe and extensive flooding in 34 out of 36 states in nigeria. The results show that the greatest amounts of rainfall are obtained in the southern and western parts of the state and on the southern and western margins of. Changes in climate in nigeria are evident by interannual variability of rainfall and temperature trends. An analysis of rainfall patterns in nigeria global journal. Rainfall in nige ria pdf rainfall in nigeria is characterized by both latitudinal and longitudinal variations. Worldwide local weather 2week forecast hourbyhour past week climate home weather lagos past weeks past weather in lagos, nigeria yesterday and last 2 weeks. Cumulative percentage mean rainfall was employed to generate the rainfall onset and retreat dates series, while the method of stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to construct the required prediction models. Pdf this study approached climate and climate change study using the rainfall distribution over each climatological zone of northern nigeria. The climate of nigeria varies more than any other country in west africa due to its great length from the south to the north 1100km that result in. Pdf trend analysis of rainfall in nigeria by some states.
Climate and average weather in nigeria weather and climate. This national adaptation strategy and plan of action on climate change for nigeria naspaccn has been prepared for the special climate change unit of nigeria s federal ministry of environment. While the vegetation map of nigeria between 1973 and 1995 forms the basis of biodiversity change analysis. Variation in annual rainfall data of forty years 19782017. Wikipedia the tropical monsoon climate, designated by the kppen climate classification as am, is found in the southern part of the country. Changes in rainfall characteristics in northern nigeria. The variability in rainfall which may result in either a decrease or increase in the rainfall trend in different regions of the world have resulted in reduction of water levels or total dry up of some perennials and seasonal rivers and lakes.
The nigerian meteorological agency nimet undertakes seasonal rainfall prediction srp annually as part of its mandate to provide timely and reliable weatherclimate information and services to all weather sensitive sectors of the economy. A wide central band of nigeria receives 8001,200mm between mayoctober. Rainfall is the most important natural factor that determines the agricultural production in nigeria, particularly in the south eastern part of nigeria. The aim of this study is to propose a model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average sarima model to model and forecast the monthly frequency of the rainfall in abuja, nigeria for. Highlights we examined the existence of trend and periodicity in rainfall of nigeria over the last century. This study examines recent changes in several rainfall characteristics in northern nigeria. Analysis of rainfall variation over northern parts of nigeria. Population and climate change nigeria case study alabi soneye phd. Time series model and analysis on rainfall in oshogbo osun. Typical mayoctober rainfall in nigeria ranges widely across the country. Mathematical study of monthly and annual rainfall trends. In winter, there is much less rainfall than in summer. Irrespective of the weather condition nigeria can still move about their businesses unlike what you get in europe and america where people are stuck once it starts snowing.
First, both the amount and area of the secondary rainfall maximum at 910. Rainfall is the key climatic variable and there is a marked difference between wet and dry seasons in most areas. On average there are 121 days per year with more than 0. The climate of nigeria is tropical, however there are wide climatic variations in different regions of the country. Given this scenario, the 2011 rainfall in nigeria is likely. Jun 01, 2016 average total mayoctober rainfall in nigeria based on the 19812015 historical record mm source. Variation in annual rainfall data of forty years 1978. The map below shows the global distribution of risks associated with main agricultural production systems. Time series analysis model for annual rainfall data in lower. Abstractthis study investigates rainfall and temperature variabilities in nigeria using observations of air temperature c and rainfall mm from 25 synoptic stations from 1971o 2000 30years.
Rainfall data in 20 locations spread across the geopolitical and ecological zones of nigeria were subjected to hierarchical cluster analysis and. Climate prediction center s africa hazards outlook april 09 15, 2020 a continuation of rainfall over democratic republic of congo, kenya, and burundi for the outlook period. Pdf rainfall distribution and change detection in northern nigeria. Climate and average monthly weather in abuja, nigeria. The data was collected on 9 synoptic stations in the region.
Nigeria s climate is characterized by strong latitudinal zones which become progressively drier as one moves northwards from the coast. In regions of high or complex topography such as the ethiopian highlands, downscaled projections indicate likely increases in rainfall and extreme rainfall by the end of the 21st century. Statistical modeling of monthly rainfall in selected stations in forest and savannah ecoclimatic regions of nigeria ademola akinbobola1, emmanuel chilekwu okogbue1 and aderemi kazeem ayansola 1,2 1department of meteorology and climate science, federal university of technology, akure, nigeria 2nigeria meteorological agency, abuja, nigeria corresponding author. Statistical modeling of monthly rainfall in selected. Pdf rainfall in nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. The records at 25 locations were analyzed for the occurrence of abrupt changes and trends using the pettitt and the mannkendall tests. This study examined the extent of climate change in kano through rainfall data analysis. Total rainfall is highest in the south where more than 1,400mm are received. The pattern of rainfall in nigeria using data on the average rainfall for a period of eleven years was examined. A savanna climate, with marked wet and dry seasons, prevails in the north and west, while a steppe climate with little precipitation is found in the far north. Daily rainfall data for eight major towns in five states in the southwestern, nigeria was collected from the nigerian meteorological agency nimet oshodi, lagos, nigeria. The statistical tools employed for the study are the cumulative index analysis and the percentage of mean. However the pattern was inconsistence for the remaining year with some kind of. Rainfall precipitation in lagos, nigeria lagos is awarded on average 1506.
Nigerias fragility score has worsened considerably since 2000, with nigeria experiencing the highest fragility of all countries in west africa and among the highest in subsaharan africa. Rainfall in western subsaharan africa is related to seasonal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone, which moves northward early in the year, retreating in the. The most populated country in africa, nigeria has a lot to offer adventurous travelers looking for a mix of modern cities and outdoor experiences. Projected rainfall change over subsaharan africa in the mid and late 21st century is uncertain. In the southeast, the rainiest region, the decrease in rainfall in july and august doesnt occur. Pdf rainfall seasonality in the niger delta belt, nigeria. Climate change is increasingly becoming a serious challenge to nigeria s socioeconomic development. Data used for this study are from both secondary and primary sources. This paper critically examines the mathematical study of monthly and annual rainfall patterns in nasarawa state for 20 years 19932012 using data obtained from the. The northern part of nigeria has the lowest amount of rainfall in a year sometimes as little as 120 to rainy days in kano and even lesser by 10 to 20 days in katsina and sokoto. G 1 this paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects of global warming on nigerian agriculture and estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change. Challenges of agricultural adaptation to climate change in.
Specifically, four 40year periods 191150, 192160, 193170 and 194180 have been studied in detail. The data were collected from the archives of the nigerian meteorological services, oshodi, lagos. Changes in rainfall characteristics in northern nigeria aondover tarhule1 and mingko woo school of geography and geology, mcmaster uni6ersity, hamilton, ontario, l8s 4k1, canada recei6ed 4no6ember 1996 re6ised 27february 1998 accepted 2march 1998 abstract this study examines recent changes in several rainfall characteristics in northern nigeria. The results among others show that rainfall decreases from 50 mm 1941. Pdf analysis of rainfall and temperature variability. Nigerian meteorological agency nimet 2019 seasonal rainfall. The data were analyzed for the occurrences of abrupt changes in. Rainfall data for one hundred years 191420 of aminu kano international airport synoptic meteorological station obtained from nigerian meteorological agency. In this paper, cluster analyses were used to study rainfall variability in nigeria. Rainfall is very important for the economic growth and development of any nation. Effects of changes in temperature, rainfall and relative. Sep 14, 2017 lets talk about nigeria climate, the temperature, relative humidity and rainfall.
The increased rainfall stimulate stagnant water in within the city that act as breeding grounds for. Minna is 75 miles from abuja, so the actual climate in abuja can vary a bit. Variation in annual rainfall data of 512 ukhurebor, ke. The data was retrieved from the archives of the nigerian meteorological agency in lagos. Changes in climate may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events in nigeria. Pdf modelling and forecasting seasonal behavior of rainfall. Impacts of climate change on food security learners notes 3 agricultural systems will need to cope with new stresses and risks. This study examines the length of the growing season in nigeria using the daily rainfall data of ikeja, ondo, ilorin, kaduna and kano. The result showed a continuous increase in the pattern of rainfall for a period of. Vegetation in nigeria is found to be more sensitive to rainfall variations in areas where there is an increase in the latter most especially the coastal regions, and decreasingly inwards to the hinterland, while in the northern parts of the country, there exists less sensitivity of vegetation to rainfall. Poor rainfall over the eastern part of southern africa has led to drought and loss of crops. Thus, coastal areas like the port harcourt region, receive heavier and more persistent rainfall because the southwest wind is strong. Climate and epidemiology of malaria in port harcourt.
Seasonal and annual rainfall variations over nigeria royal. Variations of monthly and annual rainfall over the southern, middle belt and northern regions of nigeria as well as the country as a whole are examined for a 72. Southsouth nigeria is one of the six geopolitical zones in nigeria which comprises of six states akwa ibom, bayelsa, cross river, delta, edo, and rivers. Anomalies ssta and outgoing longwave radiation olr constituted the input data for. There was a sharp difference between changes in rainfalls in 19311960 and 19611990 periods.
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